Auburn Players to Watch

#54 Quentin Groves – DE

#12 Brandon Cox – QB

#73 Lee Ziemba – OT

Auburn will win if…the Tigers are able to follow the ground game to the promised land.  In 2005 at Athens, behind the hard charging of Kenny Irons, the Tigers dominated on the ground, ran clock and had control of the game throughout (even if they did have to kick a late field goal to win the game).  The more they can hit this defensive front seven in the mouth, the better shot they’ve got of winning this game.  Spread out the carries (a little Lester, a little Fannin, etc…) and then let Cox destroy the intermediate areas of the field on play action routes.  Cox found his confidence prior to the Florida game and Auburn hasn’t looked back – even in defeat at LSU, he was magnificent.  But, even though he’s the best player on the offense, he can’t carry the offense – that’s not his role and something he’s not comfortable with doing.  Defensively, it’s the same as it always seems to be against Georgia – stop the run, stop the run and, well, stop the run.  How?  Don’t penetrate, make Moreno bounce outside to allow the safeties time to get to the ball and then tackle as well as possible.

#30 Kelin Johnson – S

#24 Knowshon Moreno – RB

#7 Matt Stafford – QB

Georgia will win if…the Bulldogs use Moreno to set up the passing game early.  I know, I know…I’ve told you a million times that I don’t like for a guy to be used a decoy, but I’ve got reasons.  First off, Moreno has been taken a pounding lately and if the Dawgs try to establish him right away, he may not have the ‘juice’ to do so.  Then, Auburn gains confidence early and the offense could become one-dimensional for the next three quarters.  But, if Stafford puts one in his belly on the first series, pulls it out and hits a deep ball behind the Auburn secondary, who bit on the play fake after selling out to stop Moreno, what happens?  Auburn is in major trouble.  Now, they can’t sell out to stop him, Stafford has some confidence and Moreno has more space with which to run the football.  Win-win situation.  Defensively, the Bulldogs focus has to be on Cox, but if Auburn’s smart they won’t let Cox threw 30 to 35 times – Georgia has to force that to happen.  As long as Auburn stays ‘balanced’, if you will, the more difficult it is for Georgia to win this game.

The Outcome – Auburn is going to shock the Bulldogs at home for the second straight time.  Georgia had the surprises for Auburn last season on the Plains and the year before that Auburn won at Athens.  So, the road team takes another one.  Auburn has a message to send to anyone who wants to pay attention – they’re as physical and nasty as any team in this league.  They’re one late LSU touchdown away from being in the driver’s seat in the SEC West and Georgia has a tendency to be up-and-down throughout a season – they’ve been way up lately, so what happens next?  That’s right.  War Eagle.

The Prediction – Auburn – 27 at Georgia – 24

USC Players to Watch

#79 Sam Baker – OT
#58 Rey Maualuga – LB

#1 Patrick Turner – WR

USC will win if…quarterback John David Booty shows up to play – he’s healthy and ready to go.  He’s the key for this team and this offense and, unfortunately, for the Trojans, he always has been.  He didn’t play well this season before he was hurt and has the rest of this season to try to keep USC relevant on the national scale.  Cal’s secondary is merely average, so he’s got to throw the football against them at will.  However, Cal’s defense was at its worst up at Oregon when the Ducks had worn them down physically.  The Trojans can run the football, so expect the Trojans to test out the Golden Bears up front early and then let the passing game develop from that point.  Defensively, shut down Jackson, no matter what.  In losses, Jackson has been merely a starter, not the best receiver in the nation, like he actually is.  Shut him down, put two people to his side on every passing down and let LaVelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan beat you, if they’re going to.

#1 DeSean Jackson – WR

#9 Nate Longshore – QB

#56 Zack Follett – LB

Cal will win if…the Golden Bears FORCE the issue to Jackson.  As noted above Cal has struggled mightily when #1 doesn’t get the football, but ask the flavor du jour in college football Oregon what happens when you let Jackson “get loose” on your defense.  Yeah, it’s nasty.  But, this one is going to be on their defense.  What they needed to learn, they could also have learned from the Ducks.  Oregon was ultra-physical with USC in every facet of the offensive game and kept USC from gashing them with the big play.  Sometimes I feel like USC will ‘gameplan’ the deep ball out of the gameplan, but Cal has to make sure that USC get a cheap score downfield by blowing a coverage or blitzing Booty and leaving the corners all alone in coverage.  Prevent the big play, force Booty and company into driving down the field for eight to ten play drives every time and then hold strong in the red zone.  This USC running game is still pretty good, so keep the right amount of run blitzes in the game plan to keep McKnight, Johnson, Washington, et al…from putting the Trojans in 2nd and medium/2nd and short/3rd and short consistently.

The Outcome – Something tells me on Senior Night, Cal isn’t going to lose, although the way the Golden Bears have played lately, I’m not 100% convinced Cal is the better team.  However, I don’t know how good this USC team is either.  With three losses and a narrow defeat of Washington State last week, this is Cal’s bowl game before their Sun Bowl or Emerald Nuts Bowl game, which is what’ll happen if it loses to USC this week.  Something tells me that shouldn’t be happening.  Cal with four losses and headed to El Paso or across the Bay for a bowl game?  Just doesn’t sit well with the college football homeostasis theory.  So, roll dice with Cal and hope for the real John David Booty to show up – the one who crumbles with a little pressure on him.

The Prediction – Cal – 27 vs. USC - 23

Texas Tech Players to Watch

#5 Michael Crabtree – WR

#6 Graham Harrell – QB

#7 Darcel McBath – S

Texas Tech will win if…Harrell is throwing the football on rhythm every time.  Texas defensive line is soft and not real good, so expect the blitz.  However, that’s playing right into Harrell’s hands.  No matter what Texas does to him, he has to get rid of the ball on time and get everyone involved which he has done much of the season.  Crabtree is going to see a double team every single play of the game, so spread it out to the other receivers and then use Aaron Crawford out of the backfield on screens, draws and swing routes throughout the game.  The rookie was solid on the ground last week and with the emergence of the running game, Tech could be in business again.  Defensively, stopping Jamaal Charles is less about being physical and more about being at the right place at the right time.  Meaning?  Meaning that Tech defenders have to be as gap conscious, as they’ve been all season long.  Nebraska blitzed and created seams up front for Charles to exploit.  As long as Tech doesn’t penetrate, Charles has to bounce to the outside, allowing time for McBath and company to fill in the alley to stop him from taking it 80 to the house.

#25 Jamaal Charles – RB

#97 Frank Okam – DT

#40 Robert Killebrew – LB

Texas will win if…the back seven can handle playing a mix of zone and man throughout the game.  The ability to mix it up in the coverage ‘game’ was the difference in the Missouri win and also in the Colorado game – both losses for Tech.  Throw the train off the tracks, just a little bit and the Red Raider offense could crumble on the road.  Could.  Offensively, pound the perimeter, get downhill, get to the second level right now and it could be another big day for Charles.  Nebraska and Oklahoma State left Charles seams in the defense and he exploited them to the tune of a million yards and a thousand touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  Either way, quarterback Colt McCoy has proven to be a solid running threat and Tech will allow him to get out of the pocket and make plays with his legs.  Take it.  Take those yards and keep moving the chains.  The more plays that the Longhorns get, the less time the Red Raider offense can be on the field.

The Outcome – At home, I like the Horns.  Tech is explosive offensively, that you know, but lately the machine hasn’t been clicking.  Texas has the chance to really put the nail in the Red Raider offensive coffin.  I just don’t think that the Red Raiders can effectively stop the Longhorns running game and the improved offensive line.  Charles is going to hit 150+ yards on the ground and bury the Red Raiders hope of a New Year’s Day game…if that was a possibility in the first place.  The Longhorns do keep their hopes alive for a BCS berth with a key win.

The Prediction – Texas – 45 vs. Texas Tech - 38

1.  Big East – Andre Dixon and Donald Brown, U Conn RBs – these two have a tough test at Cincinnati this weekend, but each one has had a great performance in both of the last two weeks.  They could use another performance of that caliber this weekend.

2.  ACC – Geno Hayes, Florida State LB – he’s got all the ability in the world and he’s making key plays lately.  Hayes has to be a star this week against Virginia Tech

3.  SEC – Emmanuel Cook, South Carolina S – the hard hitting stud in the middle of a defense that was embarrassed last week needs a huge week against the fightin’ Tebows this week.

4.  Big Ten – DeAndre Levy, Wisconsin LB – whether Mike Hart plays or not, Levy’s defense got rolled in the last 15 minutes against Ohio State.  A point needs to be made by the Badgers most productive defender.

5.  Pac-10 – DeSean Jackson, Cal WR/KR – no one player is more valuable, arguably, to his team than #1.  When he has been shut down, Cal has played poorly – it’s that simple.  Get him ten catches and the Golden Bears have a chance to beat USC.

6.  Big 12 – Chris Harrington, Texas A&M DE – Missouri’s offense can put a huge number on the Aggies and Harrington is the only player on that side of the ball who can get consistent pressure on the quarterback.  He needs to make a play or ten.